Iceland: Vikinglotto

Vikinglotto Autocorrelation Analysis

Vikinglotto: do draws have “memory”? Are results correlated between draws?

Autocorrelation of Vikinglotto: draws are independent of one another. The lag-1 ACF of sums = -0.028; not a single lag steps outside the 95% confidence band ±0.438 (lags checked: 6, significant: 0).

The strongest link between sums is at lag 3 (ACF=-0.324), yet even that stays within random scatter — Vikinglotto draws have no “memory”.

Autocorrelation (ACF) measures the linear dependence between draws separated by k steps (lags), on a scale from −1 to +1. A value beyond ±1.96/√n is statistically significant. Click a number in the table below to build its own correlogram.

Analysis based on 20 draws from to
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Frequently Asked Questions

Autocorrelation and randomness of Vikinglotto draws

Does the Vikinglotto lottery have “memory” — do draws depend on one another?

No. Of 6 lags checked, 0 are significant: the autocorrelation of sums stays within the confidence band, so a draw’s result does not depend on the previous ones. That is what you expect from a fair draw.

Runs test

Can a Vikinglotto draw be predicted from past results?

Autocorrelation tests exactly that possibility: if the ACF is close to zero, past draws do not help to linearly predict the next one. Non-linear links are searched for with transition probabilities and by analysing what follows a given number.

Markov chains What follows a number

What are a significant lag and a confidence interval?

Lag k is a shift of k draws back; the ACF shows the link between a draw and the one k steps earlier. The significance threshold is ±1.96/√n, where n is the number of draws: an ACF beyond that band means the link is unlikely to be chance (at 95% confidence).

Does autocorrelation confirm that Vikinglotto is random?

The absence of autocorrelation is a strong but not the only sign of randomness. The full picture comes from a runs test, frequency entropy and Benford’s law: if none of them find deviations, the draw is statistically indistinguishable from random.

Shannon entropy Benford’s law

How do I use autocorrelation to pick numbers?

You don’t, directly: it is a randomness diagnostic, not a number picker. If Vikinglotto draws are random (the usual case), every combination is equally likely, and it is easier to reach for the generator to get ready-made numbers.

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